The National Interagency Fire Center’s Predictive Services office details the potential effect of El Nino this Spring for all regions of the U.S.

Generally, California (with the exception of the extreme N/E corner) will see above average precipitation through April.
Arizona is wet and getting wetter through the Spring.
Washington and the Northwest can expect some easing of the drought.
West Texas, New Mexico can expect above average precipitation through April.

Year to date fire activity has been 42% of normal burning 26% of average acres.

What this means for the upcoming fire season.

Fuel moisture will be way up and some areas of the Sierra’s may stay green through the Summer. NIFC notes significant tree and brush damage and freeze-kill brush from heavier than normal snowfall will contribute to fuel loads.

For California NIFC predicts the potential for significant fire through June is normal. History contradicts this sentiment. Fewer acres burn in a Summer following an El Nino event. Unless driven by unusual or out of season wind events June and July should be quiet. We should see the inverse of 2008.

I don’t expect any significant wildfire activity in the state until the Santa Ana winds return to Southern California counties in the Fall.

If the drought pattern holds in the Northwest that is where the Summer action will take place.

“The first bushfire bunker to meet new state government regulations has been accredited in Victoria Australia” so reports AAP via Yahoo! 7News.

FireProofShelters.com.au looks to be at the forefront of this idea and their site offers a view of the product.

A couple of thoughts. If you can afford it why not have one installed. If you live in tornado country it could play a duel role. The larger version holds up to 8 people so multiple neighbors could share costs and use. During the winter the unit could be used for storage.

I cannot see a down side.

I was pointed to this story by reader Stephan Cross.
I don’t have OnStar in any of my vehicles so I have no personal experience with the product. In this case the product paid the freight.

Wildfire Today’s Bill Gabbert points us to this report from Dick Mangan of Blackbull Wildfire Services that details wildland fire fatalities between 2007 and 2009.

Mangan’s insights are drawn from data from the National Wildfire Coordinating Group’s Safety and Health Working Team.

Mangan breaks down the dry data from NWCG  and gives us a well detailed narrative with the insights you expect from a 30 year wildland fire veteran.

I was surprised to find that only one (1) firefighter died from a burnover in the past three years.  Aviation related accidents claimed the most lives (16) and heart attacks killed ten wildland firefighters between 2007 and 2009.  Mangan observations and conclusions are notable and very much worth the read.

The 2009 wildland fatalities data from the NWCG’’s SHWT can be found here.

From Colorado Springs to New York City local government is feeling the effects of fewer tax dollars in city coffers. The inevitable has begun, the sacred staff are feeling the falling axe.

The Wall Street Journal points to municipalities from coast to coast that are feeling the pinch.

I suspect new hires in the fire service will pay the price, and soon. Three percent at 50, the current retirement package at the state, county and city level in California may soon be a thing of the past. Maybe it is time to revisit some sacred cow benefits. Move retirement to 60 with a light duty or a training clause towards the end? Just saying.

I suspect a premium will be (and should be) placed on our volunteer firefighting forces as well. Times are changing, time to come up with some fresh ideas.

Yosemite National Park and the entire Sierra Nevada range is covered in feet of snow. This snowpack is important for the state water supply and will have an impact on the coming fire season.

Have a look at the Yosemite webcams here!

Unbelievable! The Houston Chronicle’s Dale Lezon reports tonight;

A Texas search and rescue team and other similar units mobilized to help earthquake victims in Haiti have been told they are not needed.
Members of Texas Task Force 1 have been on standby in Houston since Thursday to head to the devastated island nation.
But the United Nations mission in the country has declared the search and rescue teams already in the nation are sufficient to handle to the task and the Texas team and others prepared to deploy would not be needed.
The Texas unit, which has been on standby at Ellington Field in southeast Houston, was made up of 80 members including doctors and engineers. Four dogs were also part of the team.

?? I don’t get it. These crews are geared up and ready to do what they are trained to do. It is obvious there is a need for persons with skills these crews possess. Just today more people were pulled out alive from the debris and even those not alive deserve the dignity of being unearthed for the sake of their families. Not the least of which public health is now a concern with thousand of cadavers decomposing within the ruins of Haiti.

To the Texas crews affected, I hope the powers that pulled your rescue and recovery trip reverse their stance.

The good people of Texas are lucky to have you folks on the job back home. Be safe!

NOAA Satellite loopsat

It’s rare to see the entire states of California, Nevada, Oregon and Baja covered completely by rain and snow.

First responders from around the globe are descending on Port-au-Prince Haiti to search for trapped victims and render first aid and medical assistance to the injured. In the couple of days the rescue effort turns to recovery. This is when the true extent of the disaster will start to sink in.

Two million people (or more) live in Port-au-Prince and at the moment there is no municipal water or sewer system. Electric power is at best spotty if existent at all. As an island nation Haiti presents obstacles not present in the Sichuan China earthquake in 2008. Residents of Sichuan Province had the resources of the central government of China responding from many directions. Port-au-Prince can only be supplied by air and sea.

The airport has one functional runway, the port has only a few usable docks. Today there were 11 scheduled relief flights from the US but only 3 were able to land due to runway congestion.

In a matter of days the estimated 2 million homeless, with no clean water or sewer facilities will face the possibility of contracting highly communicable diseases like measles, dengue fever and dysentery.

Fewer than 10,000 United Nations contracted employees police the city. A hundred or so US Marines are on the ground now, mostly to operate and secure the airport. Soldiers from the US 82nd Airborne are en route and will add to the security effort but this is a meager force considering the task at hand. Desperation caused by hunger and thirst is already driving some to loot and riot.

Residents should be relocated to other cities in Haiti or moved into tent cities outside Port-au-Prince away from temptation to occupy buildings that still stand but as yet not inspected. Potentially severe aftershocks will be a reality for weeks to come.

A relief effort on the scale of the Marshall Plan needs to be initiated. To get the C-5’s and C-130’s on the ground someone needs to clear the airport of media types flying in for a look see in their corporate jets.

I was watching ABC tonight and was appalled at the sappy picture the pop journalists tried to paint. After thinking about it I realized these reporters have have no inclination of the breadth of this tragedy. If they did they would not have been so trite.

The only efforts that count now are those that will save lives, not story telling. What is needed is 200,000 tents, 4 million bottles of water a day, food for 2 million and medical teams to treat the sick and wounded. The airlift has to start yesterday and it will have to be round the clock for the coming weeks.

I cannot think of a similar scenario. Even the Christmas tsunami of 2004 that killed 200,000 was not as unique. The coastline was affected but survivors had help a few miles inland in addition to international aid.

God help the people of Haiti and God bless the helpers, our friends and neighbors, our brothers and sisters that went into this environment to do what they do.

Update 1/21–The Haiti government intends to relocate 400,000 homeless Port-au-Prince refugees outside the city into tent camps citing concerns about “sanitation and disease outbreaks in makeshift settlements like the one on the city’s central Champs de Mars plaza”.

From CFA Direct;

Tolmie & District Rural Fire Brigade member Hugh Monroe died yesterday after the tanker he was driving was involved in an accident on the way to an incident in Victoria’s North East. The accident happened about 14 kilometres from Tatong.

Mr Monroe, 62, had been a volunteer for nearly 11 years and was a much loved member of both his brigade and community. A dedicated firefighter and brigade 3rd Lieutenant, he was involved in the 2006 campaign through Victoria’s high country and the Black Saturday fires last year.

Mr Monroe was a Vietnam Veteran and retired to Tolmie after working as a protective services officer in Melbourne, guarding the Shrine of Remembrance. Handy with a pool cue and a keen fly fisherman, which he wrote about for his local paper, Mr Monroe ran fishing and tourism trips. He was also a passionate gardener and opened his property to visitors as part of the Open Garden Scheme.

An active, community-minded man, Mr Monroe will be deeply missed. CFA extends its sincere condolences to Mr Monroe’s family, friends and fellow brigade members.

Chief Officer Russell Rees described the accident as a tragedy and said it “reinforces once again the dedication and commitment of our people across the emergency services.” He said work protecting Victoria’s communities would go on today and into the week “under a shadow of loss as we mourn Mr Monroe’s sacrifice.”

Chief Executive Officer Mick Bourke joined Russell in expressing his condolences to Mr Monroe’s family and friends, and the wider CFA family. “When one of our own dies in active service, it deeply affects the whole organisation. All across the state, CFA members are sharing this pain and sending their condolences to those involved.”

Mr Monroe is survived by his wife of 27 years, Kathy, and his children.

Deepest condolences to Firefighter Monroe’s family, friends and his Brigade members. RIP Hugh Monroe.